A few words of wisdom (I use the term loosely

)
There is no way in hell you will get $16-$18k for your ES. When an Activ is selling for about $23-$24k inc ORC for a CVT, this makes it very hard to extract a good trade in out of used cars.
Don't start looking too soon. You will drive yourself mad! Save save and save, and when you are about 3 months out from making a decision go and start looking.
Go and test drive plenty of cars. Even if you don't like a certain car, go and drive it. Will help in comparing the car you really want. You may find you end up buying a car you may not have liked beforehand.
Take peoples advice... BUT... Make sure that it is what YOU want. Everyone is different, so bear this in mind when asking what people recommend.
Out of the 2 choices you have, I would personally choose the RA Lancer. I find the Colt a little too small personally, but it a great car and being so small is like a go kart

I would have went the RA if it had decent seats in it. It is a great car for the money, and is a good package out of the box with so much more you can do to it.
Just check insurance before you sign up. They can be hefty to insure.